What's next? Investors should avoid the fallacy that the future will look exactly like the past.
It's often been noted that stocks -- and even sectors -- that outperform one year often underperform the following year. It's called mean reversion, the tendency for most investments to revert to long-term averages."No one knows for sure, but on a sector level, history implies that the best sectors in the prior decade will not repeat as leaders in the coming decade," Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA, said in a recent note to clients.
Stovall noted that in the period from 1990-1999, the top three sectors underperformed the following decade on average, while the bottom 3 sectors outperformed.Bottom three sectors from 1990-1999:The same phenomenon happened in the following decade. In 2000-2009, the top 3 sectors , tended to underperform in the next decade , while the bottom three sectors tended to outperform.
Why does mean reversion seem to work as an investment strategy? For the stock market, there are several likely explanations. First, in a capitalist system, underperforming sectors tend to be ruthlessly restructured until they are efficient. Another explanation: Humans tend to continue buying things that keep going up in value, creating bubbles that eventually burst.
Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)
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