Lightning forks overhead as rain from the Congo rolls in across Lake Albert. A foreman on the East African Crude Oil Pipeline, or
is among the most ambitious and technically difficult energy projects on the continent. It is a jagged, $10 billion steppingstone that could transform Uganda's economy -- and provide the world with a new source of oil at a time when conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have raised supply fears. Western lenders have shunned
has sparked domestic unrest, but the government remains reluctant to abandon a generational chance to transform one of the world's poorest countries. "We are at a point of no return," says Irene Batebe, Uganda's most senior energy civil servant. But even workers at Pump Station One know that was quickly bogged down by delays. First oil was initially projected for 2017, but even the most ambitious estimates suggest that crude won't start flowing until 2025. Things may have been different had
, Total, and the Ugandan government dispute this. Officials describe mitigation measures to protect biodiversity, a land acquisition process that was transparent and fair, and respect for civil society.
so far -- and is now mostly spent. If debt financing isn't secured soon, work will grind to a halt or will be pulled off -- but analysts are aware of the risks to Total. The Tilenga project, which includes the development of six oil fields in the Lake Albert region, is key for the company to reach its 2% to 3% production growth targets by 2026, says Ahmed Ben Salem, an oil-and-gas analyst at European financial services firm ODDO BHF, who doesn't rule out further delays to
project is actively progressing discussions with various lenders, " Total said in a statement. BankTrack is lobbying Chinese lenders and potential insurers of the pipeline, which has yet to secure sufficient insurance. Brightwell is hopeful that Chinese banks may still feel pressured by new rules from Beijing calling for foreign investments to follow global environmental standards.
-- namely, the faltering economic growth in China that has rattled global markets over the past year. "China has been trying to fix domestic consumption issues," says Rwabwogo, who along with leading Uganda's PACEID is the son-in-law of President Museveni. China also is exhibiting heightened caution, perhaps understandable after its lenders got caught up in distressed debt quagmires from Angola to Zambia.
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