First Street's model is based on current temperature readings. Its predictions factor in several data points including proximity to water, elevations, grassland and global greenhouse gas emissions.
Although Texas has the Gulf of Mexico to its southeast, the state misses out on a potential cooling benefit from a large body of water because major climate patterns do not pass over water before reaching Texas — instead, they move from west to east. Starr County, located at the border with Mexico along the Rio Grande, tops the list in Texas currently with 109 days each year above 100 degrees. According to the forecast heat index map, the county should not tip into the 125-degree-plus range within the next 30 years, but it is already feeling the impact of current heat waves.
Rio Grande City, an area that bloomed during the 1930s oil industry boom and the county seat for Starr County, has about 15,000 residents. Mayor Joel Villarreal said the county has been working to add infrastructure improvements to mitigate the impacts from the recent drought, but the project is still in its infancy., agricultural loss, property damage, heat-related illnesses and more are expected as temperatures rise.
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