Ten million reasons to vaccinate the world

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Our model suggests that covid-19 has already claimed 7.1m-12.7m lives. Our central estimate is that 10m people have died who would otherwise be living

Our modelling tells another story. When you count all the bodies, you see that the pandemic has spread remorselessly from the rich, connected world to poorer, more isolated places. As it has done so, the global daily death rate has climbed steeply.

Ultimately the way to stop this is vaccination. As an example of collaboration and pioneering science, covid-19 vaccines rank with the Apollo space programme. Within just a year of the virus being discovered, people could be protected from severe disease and death. Hundreds of millions of them have benefited.

And yet the world is right to strive to get more doses in more arms sooner. Hence President Joe Biden has proposed waiving intellectual-property claims on covid-19 vaccines. Many experts argue that, because some manufacturing capacity is going begging, millions more doses might become available if patent-owners shared their secrets, including in countries that today are at the back of the queue. World-trade rules allow for a waiver.

In any case, vaccine-makers do not appear to be hoarding their technology—otherwise output would not be increasing so fast. They have struck 214 technology-transfer agreements, an unprecedented number. They are not price-gouging: money is not the constraint on vaccination. Poor countries are not being priced out of the market: their vaccines are coming throughIn the longer term, the effect of a waiver is unpredictable.

 

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Or maybe there is no reason? Efficacy: 1.3% AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1.2% Moderna–NIH, 1.2% J&J, 0.84% Pfizer–BioNTech

Neither the statistics nor a dose changes the result. People today continue to die only now out of focus.

'Our central estimate is that 10m people have died who would otherwise be living.' Good estimation: someone who does not die is living 😜

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Not as deadly as planned?

About economists and models...

I lost so many family and friends. We did not get off lightly.

good

中国全境现在不超过1000病例 你说呢

I came across this mind boggling statistics that I share with you below. If it is true, then the virus may have claimed more than two million lives in India alone. The inference is drawn by multiplying the figure of 66k with the number of Indian states and union territories.

Origin of Wuhan Coronavirus.

ya bırakın bu işler. Ekonomilere neler yaptınız ondan haber verin

so, 10-20m/year

And vice versa

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