Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nicole Florida landfall overnight Wed./Thu.

shifting to out of the west then northwest through the day at 20-30 mph, higher gusts in the morning, gradually diminishing through the afternoon/evening.will be a daily threat at the beaches, especially at high tide - becoming more significant with each day through this week. There will also be an astronomical boost due to the full moon phase which began Tue. Ponding & - eventually flooding - will also occur along the St. Johns River & its tributaries.

In general, conditions are at least somewhat favorable for additional strengthening before the Florida landfall. There will still be some shear + only moderate mid & upper level moisture but sea surface temps. are warm including pretty significant deep oceanic heat content not to mention Nicole will traverse the very warm Gulf Stream Wed. I’ve noticed multiple times over the last 20+ years that southwest moving/digging tropical cyclones often intensify.

Global forecast models continue to be in rather remarkable agreement with the low moving west/southwest... hitting Southeast Florida... then as far west as the far Eastern/NE Gulf or Fl. west coast to near the Eastern Panhandle... before feeling the effects of the strong upper level trough that will then finally pick up the storm & steer it north & northeast while accelerating. The GFS remains the farthest west with Nicole.

The forecast is for Nicole to hurricane strength between the Bahamas & Fl. should hit SE Fl./the east central coast as a Cat. 1 hurricane. Impacts are expected for all of Fl. - except for the Western Panhandle & the Mid & Lower Keys -... in addition to the Bahamas + parts of the Carolina’s to perhaps as far north as Chesapeake Bay & New England in the longer term.

REMEMBER: A skinny forecast cone only means higher forecasts confidence in the track NOT where the greatest impacts will occur. The wind field is wide. In fact, tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 460 miles especially to the north of Nicole’s center.

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