Talking the Tropics With Mike: Large tropical low with low pressure over the Central Atlantic

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.** A strong tropical wave/low pressure area is over the Eastern Atlantic...- ‘94-L’ - continues to move steadily west/NW from the Eastern into the Central Atlantic. Forecast models are slowly coming into better agreement with the eventual outcome, but the GFS still turns the disturbance northward earlier vs.

Troughing remains prevalent over the Eastern U.S./Western Atlantic which should protect the U.S. east coast from any direct impacts .The upper oceanic heat content across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean:Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds . Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones.

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