Subscriptions Could Insulate the Music Market in 2020

According to MusicWatch, 30% of subscribers live in the four states with the most coronavirus infections and earliest social distancing mandates: New York, California, Illinois and Washington. And some at-risk demographics could pause or cancel subscriptions: 24% of subscribers have household incomes under $50,000 and 14% work in services jobs, which are being disproportionately hurt by retail and restaurant closures and lower demand for ride-share trips.

Compared to previous eras, today’s music business does not depend on consumers’ purchases -- either digital or physical -- to generate revenue. “Had we been in a 2008 [recession] environment with disruption of the physical supply chains and stores closed, the result would have been catastrophic,” says Crupnick. Back then, manufacturing plants, warehouses and retailers responsible for CDs accounted for 62.3% of recorded-music revenues, while paid subscriptions were just 2.

There is no historical precedent for citizens throughout a globalist, economic powerhouse being mandated to stay at home, limiting where they shop and spend their free time. During the Spanish Flu of 1918, Thomas Edison’s record label was selling recorded music on flat discs as well as cylinders. But if the Great Recession of 2008 is any indication, many consumers will rethink how they spend their discretionary income: more experiences, less home ownership and higher student debt payments.

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