Barclays and UBS equity analysts give insight into how European investors should be thinking about the US election in new research notes.
Across the pond, European investors will also be keeping an eye on the results. Both Barclays and UBS have broken down what the US election outcome could mean for European investors providing some key pieces of advice and insight. However, Barclays' equity analyst, Emmanuel Cau highlights that in the long-term elections have had little lasting impact on markets. He believes a convincing win by either candidate would be a "market-positive" in the short-run, noting that value stocks have typically led post-election rallies. A contested election, which still remains a possibility, would present the most market volatility out of the election outcomes, Cau said.
"A fiscal package to support the economy would still emerge, but it is likely to be smaller than under a Blue Wave," Turner said. "Renewed trade tensions with China could emerge and Europe is likely to remain in the crosshairs for the trade hawks."1. A Biden win is likely to be more beneficial to Europe due to 3 key policies1. Increase in corporate tax rate, would be more of a negative for US than European earnings, Cau said.
In the medium term, a Biden administration would benefit European companies leading on green initiatives, Turner said. Defensives and value sectors, such as financials and energy, have lagged the most, Cau said. He also notes that despite the US-China trade war, Chinese equities are performing in line with S&P 500 due to large technology exposure compared to Europe and LATAM where stocks are underperforming.
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