Softer growth, cooler inflation and rate cuts remain on the horizon

Although real GDP growth came in well below consensus expectations and amounted to just 1.6% annualized in Q1-2024, the headline miss was mostly the result of larger-than-anticipated drags from trade and inventories. Real final sales to domestic private purchasers rose at a 3.1% annualized rate during the quarter. Real GDP growth is again setting up to remain strong in Q2, with our current estimate in the 2%-3% range.

Manufacturing projects have boosted structures spending, but a sharp downshift in new commercial development in the wake of increased cap rates and deteriorating CRE fundamentals appears set to drag down overall structures investment. Although strong recently, the labor market appears poised for moderation. We expect payroll growth to average roughly 135,000 per month in the second half of the year, a downshift from the 245,500 averaged so far in 2024.

Inflation Macroeconomics

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