Heading into one of the most anticipated MLB debuts in recent history, there are two numbers that sum up what many know about-- a contract handed out this winter based on the 25-year-old's track record of dominance in Japan's NPB, widely considered the second best baseball league on the planet.
The reports I got from Yamamoto's 2023 season suggested that his fastball would be a plus pitch in the majors, maybe a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale -- with Eno Sarris' Stuff+ metric suggesting that it might even be a bit better. My instinct would be for Yamamoto to throw more offspeed pitches, and especially to start at-bats with something other than the fastball more often. Given the transition from spring training usage to regular-season usage, that should happen naturally as he goes deeper in games and needs to give different looks later in starts. I think the components are here for a 60-grade or better pitch with a slight tweak to his first pitch location and pitch selections.
Overall, Yamamoto's cutter rates as an average to slightly above pitch, but it is also a pitch he uses mostly to induce weak contact and establish a different look that keeps hitters honest against his fastball and slider. It plays a key role in uniting his arsenal and filling what would've been a hole in his offerings.
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