Scenarios for how the COVID-19 pandemic might end, and why we might have to live with it for years to come

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What happens next with the coronavirus will depend on different factors of disease progression.

The COVID-19 pandemic has already caused several thousand deaths, widespread health problems, massive anxiety and economic losses. Most people are concerned with what happens day by day as we wait for control measures to work.But we should also be concerned about whether or not we will be living with the virus for a long time.

An example of a disease progress curve for a long-term scenario following the initial outbreak: quick eradication. The number of cases and duration of the epidemic for illustrative purpose only.The level of herd immunity needed to stop the spread depends on both the number of contacts an average person has and how infectious the disease is. If highly contagious, this can be as much as 95 percent.

An example of a disease progress curve for a long-term scenario following the initial outbreak: slow eradication. The number of cases and duration of the epidemic for illustrative purpose only.It is possible that we will eradicate COVID-19 in selected countries or regions, but not necessarily worldwide. Although there are hopes that a vaccine will be successful within the next year, this is not certain.

An example of a disease progress curve for a long-term scenario following the initial outbreak: persistence at low levels. The number of cases and duration of the epidemic for illustrative purpose only.In temperate climates, seasonal influenza spreads rapidly through winter but mostly dies out in summer, only to come back the following year. In between outbreaks, the flu virus survives in Asia from where it emerges every year.

 

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The vaccine is already in clinical trial.

I predict we will cause a severe recession and will keep deaths under 100,000 worldwide then come out with a vaccine and never talk about it again even if it kills more than 100,000. Flu killed more than 1,000 Americans in the last 4 days

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