for which Generalized Pareto distributions are appropriate. While the peak-over threshold method samples all relevant high VPD values, inherently producing a larger sample size, it does not ensure independence between events without further treatments and requires choosing a relevant threshold. To overcome these issues, we applied the block-maxima method and fitted GEV distributions to annual summer maxima.
To achieve this, three separate timeframes: 1995–2004 , 2045–2054 , and 2085–2094 are combined at each grid point and GEV models are applied to the sampled data. An individual sample is produced when one of the three model annual JJA maximum is randomly selected at each time point to create a timeseries for GEV analysis. Each resampled timeseries is the same size as the original data. This resampling technique is repeated 500 times to create a multi-model ensemble.
. The non-stationary GEV where the location parameter is modeled as a linear function of time that accounts for the gaps between the 3 10-year slices, has 4 parameters: location intercept , location trend , scale, and shape. If the 4-parameter GEV is selected via likelihood ratio, it is converted to a 3-parameter GEV by localizing to the mid-century modeling period = μt) prior to quantile estimation.
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