After a dreadful first term as chairman of the Federal Reserve and a disastrous 40% increase in the money supply in response to COVID, Jerome Powell seems keen to turn things around. At last, he has stood up to tanking markets, committing to beating inflation at the cost of job losses and the risk of recession. And already, the greenback has strengthened in response.
I had actually assumed that the last time the Fed increased rates by a full percentage point was 41 years ago. That was the last time inflation was this bad, and at that time, interest rates were well into the double digits — not negative as they are today. But in fact, the last 100 basis-point rate hike was in 1989, when inflation was only half as severe as it is in our current crisis.
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