Political risks may be supporting oil prices, but that's likely just short term, JP Morgan says

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Oil prices jumped on Monday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih indicated there was a consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to continue limiting supply.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih indicatedFalih said the main option discussed at a ministerial panel meeting during the day was for a rollover of the output curbs agreed by OPEC and non-members in the second half of 2019. Still, he said, "things can change by June."

OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months, a deal designed to stop inventories building up and weakening prices.futures were at $73.23 a barrel at 12:06 p.m. HK/SIN, up $1.02, or 1.4%, from their last close. Brent closed down 0.6% on Friday.

J.P. Morgan's forecast for Brent crude is $75 per barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2019. For the full year, however, Brent crude will average $71 a barrel for 2019 and will weaken to $60 a barrel from 2021, said Darling.oil exports to drop further in May and Venezuelan shipments could fall again in coming weeks due to U.S. sanctions.

The attacks come as the United States and Iran spar over Washington's tightening of sanctions aimed at cutting Iranian oil exports to zero, and an increased U.S. military presence in the Gulf over perceived Iranian threats to U.S. interests. Still, the current price support is likely short-lived due to the rise of U.S. shale energy, which has shortened the market cycle for oil, according to the J.P. Morgan expert.—Reuters contributed to this report.

 

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