Oregon stunned the Pac-12 with an upset of Arizona, and while they're riding a lot of momentum, our college basketball picks don't think the Ducks have the mettle to trample Colorado.
The Ducks last cut down the nets in 2019 as a No. 6 seed when they toppled No. 1 seed Washington by 20 points. They made the finals four of the previous six years before that, winning it all two more times. It’s safe to say Altman is comfortable with a tournament setting and his teams often thrive in this environment.
They’ve suffered through a lot of injuries this season and are down to eight healthy and active scholarship players. While that hasn’t come back to bite them yet, it might now, with this being the team’s third game in three days. The first two games were both ultimate battles as they had to overcome first-half deficits.
Oregon has a worse analytical profile, ranking 58th in KenPom, and Colorado won both of the regular season matchups. First, the Buffs took care of business with an 86-70 win in Boulder. Then they went to Eugene and won 79-75, which is notable considering they’ve struggled at times on the road and yet still beat the Ducks in their own gym.
The Buffaloes do a lot of things well offensively, but most notably they thrive when they can attack the rim at will, leading the country in near-proximity attempt rate . I’m on record as saying that Oregon big man Dante might be the best player in the Pac-12 this season, so there’s a chance that he limits Colorado’s effectiveness at the rim.
The total opened at 144 but has since dropped to 142.5. That’s interesting, considering both teams have played to the Over this year with an identical 19-14 O/U record, and both profile better on the offense end of the floor than the defensive end.
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