By Lanhee J. Chen and Daniel L. Heil Oct. 19, 2020 6:59 pm ET Joe Biden has promised that no families with incomes under $400,000 will see tax increases if he is elected president. But that’s a promise he won’t be able to keep if he gets his way and Congress creates a government-run health insurance plan—a public option.
If Congress follows its past behavior, the result will be a costly public option. With our co-author Tom Church, we estimate that a politically realistic public option would increase 10-year federal deficits by almost $800 billion. Over the long term, it would become the third-largest government program—accounting for one-eighth of future spending excluding interest on the debt.
Avoiding these dire projections will force future policy makers to choose between spending cuts and tax increases. The math is grim. Even without any new spending programs, we estimate that Congress would need an across-the-board tax increase of 10.4% beginning in 2026 to return long-term debt projections to CBO’s 2019 forecast.
Instead, lawmakers might consider raising personal income taxes for all taxpayers. An across-the-board tax hike would increase all personal income-tax rates more than 30% by 2050. Middle-income families would see their taxes rise by $2,000 a year in inflation-adjusted dollars. Middle-income taxpayers would pay a marginal federal income tax rate of 32.6%, and the top rate would need to be above 50%—levels not seen since 1981.
opinion Remember when Obama promised open debates live on CSPAN over the ACA? And then went behind closed doors and locked out all Republicans? And look how much that has cost. Yes, more people covered, but the rest of us are paying much more for less coverage since then.
opinion All this Govt will do is raise more lazy citizens with more Govt reliefs and the working will be taxed more. But, this is the lesser evil compared to the racial divide Trump is fostering
opinion and you know crooked joe will get his cut of those taxes...scum
opinion Sure, unless you make the wealthy pay for it (an option that WSJ refuses to entertain).
opinion Conjecture... But tell us Wall Street, how is America supposed to pay for the National Debt?
opinion opinion Chen and Heil, the most recent presidents with the greatest deficit increases were Reagan, GW Bush, GHW Bush, and trump. It takes a democrat to clean up the fiscal mess Republicans bury the middle class with. Carter and Clinton had the smallest deficits. Do research
opinion Ultimately the rich will get the money back again but not until it boosts the economy big time. You are too selfish to see this .
opinion Are you serious? This country has so much public debt the self-serving bureaucrats could take every penny from everyone and still not see daylight. The WSJ is no different than these govt ticks who have destroyed the world's greatest economy: you're not be honest with Americans.
opinion So true. Anyone who has money or makes money will bear the burden.
opinion The middle class will always pay when you raise taxes. Who do you think are the ones making 400k, your Boss! When they raise his taxes he just go and lay some middle class people off.
opinion Any Canadian friend I have gladly pays more taxes to know they are assured HC and don’t have to worry about bankruptcy.
opinion Why do we have such a large government? Why do we want to pay more for their poor performance? Income tax, property tax, taxes on interstate, sales taxes, registration fee, license fees.... add up what you really pay in taxes and gov fees, it will shock you.
opinion The middle class is not very bright they don't care that they are on the hook for $27 trillion the spendthrifts they elect placed squarely on their shoulders. Seems the yoke around their neck is never too heavy for them. They remind me of oxen.
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