Op-Ed: My research team makes COVID-19 death projections. Here's why our forecasts often change

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My team at the University of Washington makes COVID-19 death projections, which change as more information becomes available.

of COVID-19 in the U.S. by November. That supersedes an earlier forecast of more than 179,000 deaths by October.

Over the last few months, our projections have risen, fallen and risen again. Such unpredictability, as well as rapid evolution, are essential elements of the process in projecting the course of a new disease. As the pandemic unfolds, more information becomes available — how many people are moving around, who is and isn’t wearing masks — and our modeling evolves with that data.

 

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opinion It is understandable that projections change. It was criminally negligent to tell politicians that there will be zero deaths with zero uncertainty by July. You neglected to properly model the uncertainty.

opinion Look at the intense staring at fauci,from those idiots behind him,Glaring,Just waiting to pounce if He says something they don’t like! Intimidating him

opinion IMHE models from Univ of Washington were flawed. The model told us that 2.2 million US citizens would die, that is why we shut down.

opinion

opinion 330,000,000 people in America. 140K deaths. That is .0004% of the population!! One life lost is too many but is it really worth shutting America down? Where do you draw the line? Open up America!

opinion What 😹😹😹😹

opinion it’s looking like we’ll be at 200K deaths by early September, not the end of October....

opinion

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