Forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month slashed their expectation for growth in the first quarter by more than a percentage point, to a 3% annual rate from their forecast of 4.2% in the October survey.
The current pandemic-related shortage of workers is expected to keep wages rising at an intense clip over the next few months, as employers offer higher pay packets to retain and hire staff. Economists expect average hourly earnings to be up 4.9% from a year earlier in June; they rose 4.7% in December.
While the labor market is enjoying a robust recovery, economists say the central bank is now in danger of not raising interest rates fast enough to keep up with rapidly rising prices. Inflation, largely quiescent since the 2007-2009 recession, has picked up sharply since last spring as rising demand collided with Covid-19-related bottlenecks.
On average, survey respondents expect annual inflation to moderate to 5% in June, up substantially from the 3.4% they forecast in October, as measured by the consumer-price index. They expect it to cool further to 3.1% at the end of this year, up from last quarter’s forecast of 2.6%. “Freight rates remain extremely elevated, port backlogs are significant, Asia zero-covid policy is a major constraint while U.S. inventory rebuilding will add to the strains—that means demand could continue outstripping available supply for a considerable time to come,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
Oh look, they separated those appliances to keep them from getting covid. How thoughtful of them.
How could economic growth stall when coming out of government shutdowns for much of 2020? Perhaps economy-crushing policies from the Biden Admin and Dem-run states are the causes the nation’s economy is not soaring. BidenIsAFailure
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