With two months before the Iowa caucuses and three months before the New Hampshire primary, there’s now a real race for the Republican presidential nomination. The field is winnowing to two alternatives to former U.S. president Donald Trump: former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
It’s now a top-tier of two, Haley and DeSantis, who are continuing to separate from the rest of the field thanks to another strong debate performance Wednesday by Haley and a competent one by DeSantis, in which he made no mistakes but didn’t excel, either. This has happened quickly: two months ago the field was seven or more, and hadn’t clarified.“As Trump’s legal travails continue, so will voters’ rising interest in alternatives who can win the November 2024 general election.
Abortion access is being won, as voters want. But now Democrats will be squeezed on restrictions, which the public also wants and which Democrats won’t be able to keep ducking. So abortion still has the ability to bite Democrats if they don’t get serious and specific about restrictions. Markets’ primary domestic political focus today is whether any U.S. politician has the focus or desire to take on and tame ballooning U.S. debt, deficits and fiscal spending. The major thing markets learned from Wednesday’s debate is that no Republican today wants to take that task on board as a priority — understandable in a tough primary season where the average voter doesn’t already understand the problem, but it’s not happening nevertheless.
Another came in a discussion of Social Security, where all candidates discussed the need for change, from increasing the retirement age to limiting eligibility and even expanding Medicare Advantage, although they stopped short of specifics, saying they were a matter for negotiations with Congress.
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