LONDON - The transition period for Britain and the European Union to thrash out a trade deal will not be pushed beyond December, according to over two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters, resulting in a goods-only agreement when they part ways.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pledged the transition period will not be extended beyond December, and 24 of 34 economists polled by Reuters Feb. 17-20 agreed. In last place was for Britain to remain a member of the European Economic Area, which would mean paying into the EU budget to retain access to the single market but having no say over policies.
“The UK is likely to prioritize manufacturing sectors, in particular, the auto industry, chemicals and machinery. However, trade in services is likely to be excluded, partly due to the complexity and lack of available time, but also due to the fact that the single market for services remains incomplete,” economists at Schroders told clients in a note.
Growth is expected to be modest, with GDP expanding 1.0% this year and 1.4% next, the wider poll of 80 economists found. Inflation will average well below the Bank of England’s target this year at 1.6% before rising to 1.9% in 2021.
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