No, DeFi Is Not a Repeat of the 2008 Crisis

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Recent comments by American University law professor ProfHilaryAllen set off a fevered conversation but the comparison is a faulty one on many levels. Opinion for the 'Money Reimagined' newsletter by mikejcasey.

carried a provocative headline this week: “Is Crypto Re-Creating the 2008 Financial Crisis?”

Allen is urging the U.S. government to step in to regulate the sector before it becomes more integrated into the mainstream financial system. She argues that decentralized applications should be licensed and their founders and developers subject to enforcement actions if they are non-compliant. It’s true the average person can’t hope to understand DeFi. Much like how Wall Street’s financial engineers exploited the black box of CDS and CDOs to the eventual detriment of bank customers, that complexity also gives DeFi project founders asymmetric advantages. It’s why “rug pulls” and other abuses of overly trusting investors are common.

It was a moral hazard problem that, in the 2000s, fueled a massive market distortion. Before the crisis, banks faced asymmetric risks. They could profit from successes while the mortgage market was hot but faced no consequences if and when it turned south. The result was a warped, distorted version of capitalism in which profits were privatized and losses socialized.

To achieve that, we don’t necessarily need to attain some utopian standard of total decentralization. Rather, we need a system that is sufficiently open to competition and innovation for a significantly wider set of participants than exists in the current system. That means certain elements should be decentralized and “permissionless,” while other parts will require the involvement of trusted parties to achieve appropriate efficiency.

This DeFi dynamism, if it can be sustained, will prevent the rigidities that Allen worries will breed the same kind of systemic risk that consumed the banking system in the 2000s. That’s because the market is constantly correcting the different winners’ and losers’ tokens. It’s all about the price signals.

 

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