It’s time to accept reality about the 2024 electorate: Younger Latino voters, a key part of President Joe Biden’s 2020 winning coalition and his party’s 2022 midterm success, are no longer firmly Democratic. But they’re not becoming firmly Republican, either. Where these voters end up on Election Day — not only whom they vote for, but whether they vote at all — will be crucial in deciding the presidential race.
For Republicans, Latino support reached an all-time high of 40% in 2004 and an all-time low of 21% in 1996 . Broadly speaking, there has been a baseline 66%-33% Democratic-Republican split among Latino voters. For Democrats, staying around that ratio is beneficial. For Republicans, increasing their share two or three percentage points would lead to more electoral success.
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