New Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise But Housing Market Still ‘Cratering’—Here’s When Experts Predict Prices Will Fall

New home sales unexpectedly broke a four-month streak of losses and climbed more than economists projected in May, according to data released Friday, but experts note the reprieve may not last long, citing rising mortgage interest rates that are likely to continue curbing demand—likely pulling down record prices as soon as the end of this year.... [+]About 696,000 new single-family houses were sold last month on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, climbing 10.

The housing market is “rolling over, rapidly, and sales have further to fall,” Shepherdson said, adding he sees “little chance of a clear bottom” until late summer or early fall—after sales have fallen “substantially” further given the lagging effect of mortgage applications on sales. In a good sign for potential buyers, lower demand has helped inventory levels—long constrained during the pandemic—skyrocket, Shepherdson notes, predicting prices will fall across the second half of the year as home builders seek to reduce inventory; the pace has already slowed, with prices climbing just 0.8% over the past six months, compared to 2.5% last summer.

In a note to clients Thursday night, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said current housing market trends, including weakened price growth and elevated vacancy rates, suggest prices will fall by about 3% for every 1-percentage-point increase in mortgage rates, which have already climbed by roughly 3 percentage points over the past year.$507,800 last quarter, will peak in the fourth quarter of this year and then edge down until mid-2024.

in a statement, noting about 55% of homes sold above list price. “But if the housing market continues to cool, prices could fall in 2023,” he adds.The Fed’s expected to make its next interest rate hikes at the conclusion of its upcoming policy meeting on July 27. Goldman economists said they now expect the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points again next month—adding to the most aggressive increases in two decades.

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