National Polls And State Polls Show Pretty Much The Same Thing

of black Democrats and moderate, usually non-college-educated white Democrats.

Nevada, which is more working-class and more racially diverse, is a stronger state for Biden, as well as for Sanders, who like Biden does better among voters who did not attend college. And South Carolina, which has both a lot of African-American voters and a lot of moderate white voters, is a very strong state for Biden, as his polling average there more than doubles that of the second-place candidate, Warren.they show Biden at 27.

The one candidate who really does appear stronger in the early states is Steyer, who averages at least 2.5 percent in each of them — but only registers at 0.9 percent in national polls. Of course, Iowa and New Hampshire vote first — and could therefore affect voting in the subsequent states, including Nevada and South Carolina. But the media ought to be careful about implying that Biden is especially weak in the early states or that Buttigieg is especially strong in them. Those characterizations only hold if you look at Iowa and New Hampshire, which have electorates that are highly unrepresentative of the Democratic Party as a whole.

Put differently, there isn’t much evidence that Biden does worse with voters who see him up close and personal, as often seems to be the implication of coverage that focuses heavily on Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead, he does worse with, who are plentiful in these states.

NateSilver538 National and state polls show this too. Don't ignore the epstiencoverup story

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