Most Arab countries now focus on domestic concerns, not unity

ago, scores of people packed into a Beirut concert hall for an evening of nostalgia. An Iraqi-born singer performed songs by Umm Kulthum, Egypt’s most famous diva. “The Lady” was an icon of Arab nationalism: a champion of the Palestinian cause and friend of Nasser, who often scheduled his speeches to follow her monthly concerts. On this evening the mostly Lebanese crowd was drawn from a mix of sects and classes.

The past decade has been one of disappointment. The axis of resistance has become a reactionary force. The Muslim Brotherhood’s slogan, “Islam is the solution”, turned out to be hollow: faith alone cannot solve socioeconomic problems. What seemed a zero-sum contest to reshape the Middle East has been fought to a draw, leaving much of the region miserable. “Some of those battles are not winnable in the short or long run,” acknowledges a diplomat from the Gulf.

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, flew to Beirut a year ago after the catastrophic blast that shattered the Lebanese capital, hoping to cajole its venal leaders into serious reforms. A year later he is fundraising to ensure that the Lebanese army continues to feed its soldiers, a more modest ambition. Other European powers have little to do with the region. Russia and China look out only for their own narrow interests. Yet outsiders still loom large in the popular imagination.

Some countries are too far gone to return to the status quo ante. Foreign diplomats still hope for a peace deal that returns Yemen to the control of a-backed government. Yet a plethora of armed groups, many with competing interests, makes this impossible. This “Westphalian fantasy”, writes Nadwa al-Dawsari, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, a think-tank, “will not stop Yemen’s fracturing, and could even make it worse.

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Past diplomatic engagements was preconditioned on a stable detente with oligarchs. All bets were off starting with the Jasmine Revolution.

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