Morgan Stanley scoured 100 sets of data and warns we’re ‘just outside the danger zone’ of the next recession. Here’s how it says to prepare.

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The next recession won't announce itself. Morgan Stanley strategists have compiled a playbook to protect your portfolio before it arrives.

may not be imminent — but it's close enough for investors to start getting their portfolios in order.strategists, who have compiled a playbook for how investors should start preparing for the next economic downturn.

This observation is based on their review of over 100 data series on the US economy, and their study of the five most recent recessions. The data — from consumer spending to the employment situation — show that while risks are rising, they haven't yet crossed the point of no return.will help investors pinpoint the start date of the next recession. It's a feat they simply haven't been able to pull off with precision.

By preparing early, investors can remove the element of surprise when the next recession hits, he added. Across asset classes, large-cap US stocks and Since the start dates of recessions can't be accurately predicted, yet investors should be ready, it begs the question of how to know when one is approaching. According to Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief US economist, a recession can only occur if household spending deteriorates. And the most important data point to track on this front is the monthly nonfarm payrolls number, she said.

 

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