Middle East conflict adds new risks to global economic outlook

© Reuters. An Israeli tank drives on a road following a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, near Sderot in southern Israel October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

The impact may take time to become clear, and would depend on how long the conflict lasts, how intense it becomes, and whether it spreads to other parts of the region. "Any source of economic uncertainty delays decision-making, increases risk premia, and especially given that region...there is an apprehension about where oil is going to open," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist with

Federal Reserve officials have cited recent high energy prices as a possible risk to their outlook of gradually easing inflation, and also said that they felt the U.S. economy was likely to avoid a recession - absent some sort of unexpected, outside shock. Fed officials were already watching a recent rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields for signs investors may have pushed financial conditions beyond what was needed to cool inflation, and raised the risk of a too-stark economic slowing.

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