March Madness: Caitlin Clark, Iowa's difficult Final Four path

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But before fans of Iowa, Clark and the women's game as a whole get their brackets set and add championship game tickets to their electronic wallets, expectations need to be tempered around another deep tourney run for these Hawkeyes.According to ESPN Analytics' NCAA tournament forecast model, which is based on the women's Basketball Power Index ratings, Iowa came out of Selection Sunday with a 32.9% Final Four probability. In other words, there's a 67.

None of the other teams ranked ahead of Iowa in the BPI rankings sits any worse than 12th on its weaker side of the ball . That comparative liability could leave Iowa vulnerable in the tournament, barring even more superhuman play from Clark on offense than usual. Looking at the average BPI of the teams each top seed would need to beat to reach the Final Four without any upsets , Iowa's likely Albany 2 opponents carry a BPI of +25.68 on average. That figure means the Hawkeyes would go through the toughest set of opponents for any No. 1 seed, even if only by a slight margin over Portland 3's top seed, USC:Find out why Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and other stars have taken women's college basketball to new heights.

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