As the already unbearable 2024 election drifts toward its conclusion, breath by raspy breath, President Joe Biden’s standing has barely improved from two months ago. The FiveThirtyEightshows Biden gaining just 1.3 points on former President Donald Trump since the beginning of March, and the New York Times/Siena College team dropped another set of bleak, panic-inducinglast Monday.
The tool’s 2020 baseline is set to an 11-point margin for Republicans among voters 65 and older . But if we drop that margin slightly to 9 points, Biden-point erosion in the youth margin and a 9-point drop in young voter turnout. Cutting 5 points off of Trump’s margin with older voters would also allow Biden toThere is, of course, some danger in taking the crosstabs from preelection polls too seriously.
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