‘Longtermism’ Movement Misses the Importance of War

Longtermism, an idea that has been attracting attention lately, says that while we should help people alive today, we should also care about those who might live in the future. We should try to maximize the number and happiness of these possible people.

Critics have charged that longtermism is too white, male and coldblooded, but I admireMacAskill’s passion for helping others. He has helped raise millions of dollars for charitable causes, such as fighting diseases in poor regions, while giving most of his income away, according to a profile in the New Yorker. I urge young people in search of a mission to check out What We Owe the Future.

MacAskill views scientific innovation as essential for solving our current problems, such as climate change and pandemics, and creating a better future. He fears that innovation is stagnating at a time when we can ill afford it. He compares humanity with a climber scaling a cliff with no safety net; if we stop climbing, we’ll get tired and fall off the cliff. So, we need to keep climbing—that is, innovating.

Equally implausible is another scenario mentioned by MacAskill: that human psyches can be digitally reproduced and “uploaded” into computers. Uploading would require cracking the neural code, the algorithms that transform brain activity into perceptions, thoughts and memories. But the neural code—which could also benefit AI research—is one of those problems that look less tractable over time. Researchers show no signs of converging on a plausible explanation of how brains make minds.

MacAskill says would-be altruists, when prioritizing problems, should consider two criteria: Is the problem neglected, and it is tractable? Militarism, to my mind, satisfies both criteria. MacAskill himself notes that the risks of war “have largely fallen out of the mainstream conversation among those fighting for a better world.” Many people, including activists and others I’ve polled over the years, see peace between nations as a utopian pipe dream.

Interesting article, but why is this opinion piece in the Scientific American?

The war will be between humans and AI. SF writers are ALWAYS the best prognosticators.

The main threat to humanity's future is this obsession to terminate newborns with wide open fontanelles of skull. It isn't hard to figure out (((who))) is behind this atrocity!

The problem is that once you demilitarize someone with power will get greedy and take advantage of the unarmed, restarting the need for militarization. You would need to somehow eliminate selfish behaviors and otherization.

War has always been about resources. Between those being stingy and those who take more than they need, both are based on creating imbalances, which falls in the territory of dishonesty. Any form of government can be destroyed by dishonesty.

Just the opposite, war is controlled by the digital world . That’s where war is funded. Stop the funding and no more weapons of war will be built because there would be no profit in it.

Don’t confuse the potential to wage war and war. When war results it’s because people failed to negotiate properly.

Or you could leave the heavy lifting to God and stop pretending you can change the future. LOL

“Can we do better than capitalism? Are fairer economic systems possible? MacAskill never addresses these questions; “capitalism” doesn’t appear in his index as a stand-alone item. Is MacAskill reluctant to criticize capitalism because he hangs out with, and raises money from,”.

robo satan preachers use their belief system to justify their greed and vanity. a very, very old scam with a fresh coat of paint.

I think the author is right to point out that the risk of war is underemphasied in EA and longtermism. AI could likely destabilise geopolitics and war is a risk factor that increases existential risk generally. There's been some EA longtermism research on risk of 1/2

I’m so disappointed by this. I’ve subscribed to SA for years, as well as followed the EA community. Now there is an article on longtermism, yet your research is so bad that it doesn’t even mention basic things like This is terrible journalism!

War/militarism are definitely a problem but not as big a problem as AI alignment risk which is very serious and has the highest chance of wiping out humanity in the coming decades. Alignment risk is likely the 1 problem humanity is facing

Picard said it best:

Just what I’d expect a bot to tweet

Eish! Longtermism? Why not a “Moral Luck”? Or is the Longetermism a middle ground morality of Utilitarianism and “Mural Luck”?

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