LONDON - Turkey’s ability to sustain its military campaign in Syria may depend in part on what happens far away from the battlefield: in the foreign exchange market.
Last year, a standoff with the United States was an aggravating factor in a 30% fall in the lira, prompting an economic recession in the country which is heavily dependent on imports as well as foreign investors flows. “Net reserves are negligible in Turkey,” said Tatha Ghose, forex and emerging market analyst at Commerzbank in London.
The lira’s history is littered with examples of tension with Washington dramatically amplifying exchange rate moves, while inflationary pressure - and its implications for central bank efforts to lower interest rates - are ever present. Some investors and economists are puzzled about the best way to measure net reserves and how the central bank accounts for swaps in its calculations.
“They know they don’t have the reserves to maintain the lira at a particular level and if they do they would only be able to do that for a few days.”
Turkish people never bow down to terrorists over money. So, you’re wrong!
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