Sorry to almost everyone not named Olivia Rodrigo. Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos by Getty Images Predicting Grammy nominations has never seemed like more of a fool’s errand than this year. For one, we’re coming off last year’s chaotic nominations, a noticeably out-of-touch slate from a body known for being out of touch.
Record of the Year Off and on since 2017, the Grammys have given out Record of the Year as the final trophy of the night rather than Album of the Year. That will make extra sense this year, as the Grammys are going to revolve around one song: “drivers license.
Album of the Year Thanks to the strength of “drivers license,” not to mention its album’s cross-genre appeal, Olivia Rodrigo should have no trouble securing an Album of the Year nomination for Sour, despite it being her debut. Her closest competitor here, Billie Eilish, had a similar trajectory in 2020, eventually sweeping the awards.
Song of the Year Olivia Rodrigo might be the favorite in all of these categories, but “drivers license” has even better chances here than in Record of the Year, thanks to her established reputation as a soul-baring songwriter in the lineage of Taylor Swift. Billie Eilish aims for similar territory on “Happier Than Ever,” compared to her less-personal 2020 winner “bad guy,” which should go over well with the Academy.
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