Given the difficulty of the map, it really could come down to Arizona, and the differences between top Republican candidate Kari Lake and Democrat Ruben Gallego are stark. Lake is a former television newscaster turned MAGA ideologue, whom Arizona-based Democratic strategist Chuck Coughlin described to me as “Trump with a dress on.” So the question for her is whether she can win over enough unaffiliated voters in the state to secure a victory.
When Kyrsten Sinema defected from the Democratic ranks and adopted the independent label, the assumption was that she would run as a third-party candidate for Senate in the Grand Canyon State. And while she boasts more in her war chest than Lake and Gallego combined, any path to victory for Sinema seems to have all but dried up after developing something of a reputation as an obstructionist to the Democratic Party’s agenda while not doing enough to win over the support of Republican voters.
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