Joe Biden's Poll Numbers Are Steady, but Are They Immovable?

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s presidential campaign has been defined by what it’s not as much as by what it is. He hasn’t made waves with big-ticket policy proposals and he has mostly avoided skirmishing with his Democratic rivals.

In a Monmouth University poll last month, this question was put to likely Democratic primary voters nationwide: Would you prefer a strong nominee who could defeat Trump, even if you disagree with that candidate on most issues — or a candidate with whom you see eye to eye but who would have difficulty overcoming the president?Polls suggest that Biden’s support is built largely on these very voters, who are seeking an experienced leader to reverse the Trump administration’s policies.

But a degree of insecurity still lingers. The former vice president has faced strikingly few challenges from his rivals or from debate moderators in recent months — a boon to his candidacy that could evaporate if his opponents’ tactics change. Indeed, Biden’s support dipped for weeks in the fall amid a surge from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who was seen as possibly more capable of uniting the moderate and left wings of the Democratic Party. But her polling numbers began to waver after her support for “Medicare for All” drew criticism, and much of Biden’s support appeared to stabilize.

About as many women support Biden as do men, and he is the most popular candidate among black Democratic voters — a key constituency, particularly in the primaries. Biden has also benefited from the fact that Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to be looking for a leader with solid political experience, according to a multilevel analysis of voter preferences published this month by Monmouth. Biden, who was first elected to the Senate 48 years ago, is by far the most popular candidate among Democrats who prioritize experience in a nominee: 44% of such voters back him, the Monmouth analysis found.

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