Joe Biden trails Donald Trump by a thin margin in 2024 US Election odds. Can "Uncle Joe" boost his approval rating and public perception before November?As America trundles toward primary season and an emotional 2024 presidential election, voters will be heavily invested in the outcome of the race for the White House.
Despite serious political headwinds fueling optimism among rankled progressives that the Democratic Party will move on from Biden in 2024, Democratic political and organizational leaders continue to scuttle this possibility. Speculation that California Governor Gavin Newsome will challenge Biden as the nominee seemingly refuses to die, but Newsome has repeatedly denied any intention of embarking on such a foray.
First, although executive approval remains a significant component of presidential forecasting models, these evaluations may not represent the signal they once did regarding the incumbent candidate’s re-election prospects in a hyper polarized context. Approval ratings are more static today than in previous eras, meaning that accomplishments and failures alike are less likely to lead to shifts in approval now compared to the past.
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