In the minutes from the June policy meeting, central bank officials noted that “Labor market conditions remained tight in April and May … Recent measures of nominal wage growth continued to be elevated, although lower than their highs last year. Over the 12 months ending in May, average hourly earnings for all employees increased 4.3%, below its peak of 5.9% early last year.”
Given the still-strong jobs numbers, most expect the Fed to raise rates by another 0.25% to a range of 5.25 – 5.5% at the July 25-26 meeting. The last time the Fed Funds rate clocked in at these heights was during a 12-month period from July 2006 to July 2007, just before they plummeted to zero in response to the Great Financial Crisis.
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