Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

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The Japanese Yen has finally started to stage some element of recovery after an aggressive 2.5 week spurt of weakness. Get your market update from JStanleyFX here:

is sticking out as one of the few major Central Banks that’s not looking at rate hikes in response to inflation. And as we’ve discussed multiple times in these pieces, when carry trade themes start to come back, divergence potential with the Japanese Yen can spell for big moves. This was the reason that I was looking for, and that theme has continued to play-out as we now move into Q2, 2022.

But, now that the pair is going the other way – does that mean that rate hike prognostications are, too? Not necessarily. Price discovery is taking place in both of these markets at the same time and that’s why fx rates and spot prices aren’t always perfectly correlated. In JPY, this pullback seems to be more of a technical event after/JPY ran into the psychological level at 125, which has had a tendency to produce similar themes when coming into play over the past 20 years.

This same zone was resistance in USD/JPY in 2002 and 2007, followed by an inflection in 2015 after Shinzo Abe and Abe-nomics drove a 3-year pattern of weakness into the pair before finally topping out. But, around that episode is when Governor Kuroda had called out the 125.00 level in the pair as being significant and, ultimately, that helped to carve-out the top.

 

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