Wages appear to be the last piece of the puzzle and BoJ Governor Ueda has often referred to a ‘virtuous cycle’ between wages and prices as the main determinant for policy change.
Risk management is key in such situations if the prior intervention from Japanese officials is anything to go by. Price swings around 500 pips have transpired in 2022 so there is great risk of a massive pick up in volatility. Later today Euro Area inflation for Feb is expected to drop from 3.3% to 2.9% for the core measure and expecting to see a similar decline in the headline measure from 2.8% to 2.5%. A lower all-round inflation print is likely to draw the attention to next week’s ECB monetary policy meeting where there is little expectation of a rate cut. Markets price in a strong probability that the first rate cut will take place in June despite Europe’s economy in need of support right now.
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