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Is China about to let the yuan go for a wander?

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PBOC,USDCNH,USDCNY

PBOC Governor Pan spoke overnight and confirmed that they are still looking to continue their accommodative stance, albeit with no big changes likely.

One thing they did touch on was that they are looking at purchasing their own Treasury bonds. However, they also said that wouldn’t be QE as styled in the West but more as a “liquidity-management tool”. However they spin it, buying ones own bonds is QE in one shape or another. Those comments put CNY & CNH on a weaker footing but the comments from FX officials might be the big news. Among other comments, they said that they would be “resolutely preventing the exchange rate from overshooting”.

has been in an uptrend for pretty much all of 2024 and officials have had their state banks intervening to keep CNY from weakening too much. Now, they might be easing off the brakes. For USDCNH, we’ve been up against a strong resistance level around 7.28 and so further CNY weakening will likely see this break and a move up to 7.30’s likely. I’ve been short USDCNH since 7.36 but have become a bit concerned by the price action over the last few weeks.

PBOC USDCNH USDCNY Technical Analysis

 

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