Investors look for clues on consumer health as holiday shopping kicks off

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Investors are closely watching U.S. retail stocks as a barometer of consumer confidence as inflation bites, as the most important shopping season of the year begins on Friday.

Consumer discretionary stocks, measured by the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector - the group of companies that benefit from spending on retail, restaurants, and vacations - are down 32% for the year to date, more than double the 15.5% decline in the broad S&P 500

, as consumers have been walloped by surging inflation and the swiftest increase in interest rates since the 1970s. "These stocks are a clue as to how fast the economy is slowing and whether slowing inflation is lifting confidence on Main Street," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.than economists expected in October, pushing the annual increase below 8% for the first time in eight months and helping spark a rally in the broad U.S. stock market on hopes that inflation had finally peaked after hovering near 40-year highs.

 

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