)'s latest analysis paints a nuanced picture of India's consumer industry, leading to a revision of their view from "Attractive" to "In-Line." Despite a favorable GDP growth outlook, driven by cyclical businesses, the defensive consumer sector is anticipated to lag behind due to intensified competition and changing consumer behavior.
Morgan Stanley's India equity market strategist, Ridham Desai, highlights the ongoing upcycle in India's economy. However, this upcycle poses challenges for staple stocks, with cyclical consumption outperforming defensives. Projections indicate GDP growth rates of 6.8% and 6.5% in FY25 and FY26 respectively, supported by a rebound in capital expenditure.
While consumption remains a pillar of India's economic growth, post-pandemic recovery has been uneven, particularly in rural areas. Factors such as a shift towards services, slower rural demand recovery, and ongoing adjustments in household budgets contribute to this mixed growth outlook. While challenges persist in the consumer sector, India's consumption narrative remains intact, poised for growth as the economy evolves and consumer preferences shift. Morgan Stanley's analysis provides valuable insights for investors navigating the dynamic landscape of India's consumer industry.) - The stock has delivered a meager return of 7.3% in the last one year, despite which it seems overvalued by 6.8%.
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