‘I used to work at Nvidia. The stock I got is now half my portfolio. Should I sell?’

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A former Nvidia employee: I have a lot of insight about the company and AI industry. I feel strongly about betting on $NVDA. BrettArends: Being an expert on Nvidia and AI can’t make you an expert on the stock market.

Say hello to Nvidia Bro—my name for him, not his—who says he is sitting on what seems to be a cool half a million bucks in Nvidia NVDA, +2.92% stock.

“I am 33% toward my retirement goal. Plan to work about 10-15 more years if nothing unusual happens,” he says. His retirement goal, the number he wants by the time he retires, is $5 million. There’s the “endowment effect,” which means we are less likely to sell a stock we already own than we are to buy that stock if we don’t own it.

An investor who held on to Microsoft MSFT, +5.32% at the peak in 2000 didn’t get back into the black, when adjusted for inflation, for 16 years. The real return over that time was 0%.In their day, Nokia, Palm, and BlackBerry were the surefire winners of the future smartphone revolution. Where are they now?

Sure, the AI mania may be just beginning. Let’s even say probably. And Nvidia may keep going up. And, maybe, up and up and up. The old joke is that bubbles don’t burst until the last bear turns bullish.

 

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