In recent weeks, gas prices have been stronger than expected, with the Title Transfer Facility benchmark surpassing USD 10/mBtu, the highest since January. According to the bank, supply disruptions, such as the prolonged outage at Freeport LNG and maintenance at Gorgon, along with geopolitical risks, have contributed to this increase.
The bank's analysts stated: "Europe's gas market is well on its way to finding a new normal, two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine." This influx of LNG is anticipated to lead to an oversupply in the market starting in 2026, potentially lasting until the end of the decade. The timing of this glut is uncertain, but HSBC foresees it being highly likely given the firm supply growth from key producers.
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