How Trump’s trade war is hurting swing states

The U.S. economy seems to be a net positive for President Trump as he campaigns for reelection. Unemployment is low, consumers feel pretty good and their spending is holding up.

That sounds like healthy growth in trade. But the numbers for China in particular show a sharp slowdown in trade between the two economic giants, as Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese imports and China retaliated with similar measures on American goods. Exports to China fell 17.9% from 2017 through 2019, while imports from China fell 10.7%. For businesses and regions overexposed to trade with China, that’s a tough economic hit.

The swing states that took the biggest hit in the Panjiva data are Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. Those states endured a net loss of exports overall, and to China in particular from 2017 to 2019. Maine lost exports to China while overall exports were flat. Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020, and the four states combined account for 34 electoral votes.

That’s why we included Louisiana in the table above. Louisiana is solidly red—not a swing state. But it’s also where crops and other products from states such as Iowa and Minnesota leave the United States for foreign markets. They show up as exports from Louisiana, not from the originating states. So while the China export numbers for the originating states look pretty good, the China export numbers for Louisiana are terrible, falling 36% from 2017 to 2019. Some of that pain is felt elsewhere.

Every American state has a different trade relationship with China, and exports vary significantly by category in each state. Explore more data:

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