The S&P 500 was at 4,238 as I wrote this on June 11, 2021. Over the next 5 years, relying on decades of portfolio management and technical analysis,Between now and June of 2026, the S&P 500 could be as high as 5,000, and as low as 2,000. Let me wait while you catch your breath.
Consider this as an example of what can happen if you pin all your hopes on a bullish forecast: in February, 1997, the S&P 500 was around 800. It nearly doubled by the year 2000, then fell hard. By July, 2002, it was back at 800. Later that decade, the financial crisis took it back down to 800 again, and even below that level.We need to skip the averages and focus on a wide RANGE of possible outcomes.
So, the 2,000 low point in the forecast is simply based on what history implies. The 5,000 “top” of the 5-year forecast allows for the possibility that the market euphoria/FOMO is not yet finished. The CAPE Ratio, at around 37, is roughly 20% below its Dot-Com Bubble record high. If we get there, and assume that the S&P 500 rally has that much upside room, we get about 5,000.I have no idea, and neither does anyone else.
Or, will you leave it to chance, and assume that the last 30 years of market history mean nothing in today’s Social Media, Big-Tech, Crypto-infused environment? I hope you don’t do that, and instead consider the wide range of possibilities that exists in these strange times.
Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)
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