How the NBA maximized shooting efficiency in an era of Stephen Curry's 3-point revolution

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Prior to the 2009-10 NBA season, when Kevin Durant first emerged as a generationally efficient scorer, only four players averaged 30 or more points per game on 60% true shooting or better: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Michael Jordan and Adrian Dantley, or the three most prolific scorers of the league's first 67 years and a guy so skilled at manufacturing free throws that proliferation at the line became 'The Dantley.'

Through the first month of this season, eight players scored better than 30 points per game, and seven of them owned a true shooting percentage higher than 60%. The one who did not, Giannis Antetokounmpo, has atrue shooting percentage of 60%. A ninth player, Ja Morant, could join their club in short order.

Seven of the 12 teams on that list featured either Durant, Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell — five of the eight aforementioned players averaging 30-plus points a game this season:Jayson Tatum, Golden State Warriors: 31.5 PPG , Milwaukee Bucks: 31.3 PPG Should Curry maintain these numbers, his season would rank as, two ticks better than his unanimous MVP campaign.

It isn't just that they are taking the right shots. The accuracy with which they are converting them creates space to make difficult shots easier. Teams are taxing themselves to defend the rim and the perimeter, so the mid-range opens enough to make those attempts manageable. Kobe Bryant took a league-leading 12.2 mid-range shots per game during his 2005-06 campaign, when he averaged a career-high 35.4 points, and made just 42.4% of them. That is an awful lot of work to get 10 points a game.

This season, 18 players are on pace to join that club, albeit early in the season. The Celtics boast three of them: Grant Williams, Al Horford and Sam Hauser, who are shooting a combined 46% on a dozen 3-point attempts per game. The Celtics have weaponized the roster around Tatum. Defend their shooters, and Tatum attacks the rim. Close in on Tatum, and he picks his poison around the arc. Try to defend both, and Jaylen Brown steps into the mid-range, where he's shooting 60.5% this season.

There is evidence of diminishing returns on open and wide-open 3-pointers as the Rockets increased their attempts from 26.6 in 2013-14 to 45.4 in 2018-19. Defenses got hip to Houston's scheme, and Harden had to work even harder as the heliocentric core of the offense. There is only so far you can push the limit, and we should not be surprised the league average has settled at the median of Houston's escalating attempts.

 

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