Donald Trump will likely secure the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday with the help of delegates he'll win in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington state. But those wins will carry with them some danger for other Republicans who will be on the ballot in November. Whatever you think of Trump's takeover of the Republican Party, it has not been great for down-ballot candidates, especially those running in battleground House districts and swing states.
Presidential years are always much harder for Republican candidates in blue states because turnout is so much higher than midterm elections. For example, in New York turnout was 63% in 2020, compared with 43% in 2022. That means a lot more voters to try to persuade, and a lot bigger pile of voters who you're never going to be able to reach. There are 17 congressional seats where Biden won in 2020 and Republicans then won in 2022.
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