How Machine Learning Could Predict Rare Disastrous Events – Like Earthquakes or Pandemics

, the researchers explain how they utilized statistical algorithms which require less data for accurate predictions, in combination with a powerful machine learning technique developed at Brown University. This combination allowed them to predict scenarios, probabilities, and even timelines of rare events despite a lack of historical data.

The researchers found the answer in a sequential sampling technique called active learning. These types of statistical algorithms are not only able to analyze data input into them, but more importantly, they can learn from the information to label new relevant data points that are equally or even more important to the outcome that’s being calculated. At the most basic level, they allow more to be done with less.

In the paper, the research team shows that combined with active learning techniques, the DeepOnet model can get trained on what parameters or precursors to look for that lead up to the disastrous event someone is analyzing, even when there are not many data points.

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