or die, as they do with influenza. But at a population level, widespread vaccination and immunity from prior infections will help downgrade the virus into something that mostly causes mild disease, freeing us from factoring COVID-19 into every decision.
The unsatisfying answer, of course, is it depends. If you are immunocompromised, elderly or have an underlying medical condition , you’re working with a different set of variables than someone who is younger and healthier. Families with children younger than 5, who cannot yet be vaccinated, may also choose to be more cautious, even though most young children do not get seriously ill.
Hospitalization rates can also be useful, says Dr. Kelly Michelson, a pediatrician and bioethicist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. Case counts give a snapshot of COVID-19’s prevalence, which is particularly important information for unvaccinated or high-risk people for whom any exposure could be serious.
Humans also tend to “focus very little on the probability [of something actually happening] and much more on the [potential] negative outcome” of a decision, says Robyn Wilson, a professor of risk analysis and decision science at the Ohio State University. For example, plane crashes are extremely rare, but many people are terrified of flying because of how grisly occasional crashes are.
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