Hot core: Canada may need a recession to cool down inflation

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The underlying pressures driving inflation in Canada are likely to peak in the fourth quarter of this year, economists told Reuters.

Canada’s inflation data for August will be released on Tuesday, with analysts forecasting the headline rate will edge down to 7.3%, from 7.6% in July and a four-decade high of 8.1% in June.We deliver the local news you need in these turbulent times on weekdays at 3 p.m.By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You may unsubscribe any time by clicking on the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc.

“Rapidly cooling growth, the pullback in housing prices, and less pressure on supply chains will help cap core inflation relatively soon,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.Article contentThe broadening of price increases, increased wage settlements, as well as rising consumer and business inflation expectations are signs that inflation is becoming more entrenched in the economy, economists told Reuters. Six of eight said they see signs of entrenchment.

The central bank has already raised interest rates by 300 basis points in just six months to 3.25% – a 14-year high and the loftiest policy rate among central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.Article content “We think aggressive interest rate hikes will be followed by a recession next year … which would prevent expectations from coming fully unanchored,” said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

 

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